Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.016509 0.018683 0.021038 0.023779 0.026882 0.030287 0.034309
2025-09-14 0.012537 0.015406 0.018779 0.023040 0.028282 0.034529 0.042549
2025-09-21 0.010475 0.013619 0.017526 0.022746 0.029547 0.038123 0.049786
2025-09-28 0.008862 0.012062 0.016227 0.022051 0.030003 0.040506 0.055480
2025-10-05 0.008179 0.011587 0.016202 0.022920 0.032475 0.045618 0.065145
2025-10-12 0.007527 0.011053 0.015999 0.023461 0.034469 0.050172 0.074385
2025-10-19 0.007004 0.010625 0.015873 0.024054 0.036534 0.054939 0.084302
2025-10-26 0.006368 0.009955 0.015311 0.023916 0.037455 0.058045 0.091942
2025-11-02 0.005858 0.009418 0.014885 0.023920 0.038553 0.061457 0.100292
2025-11-09 0.005318 0.008778 0.014233 0.023490 0.038896 0.063669 0.106859
2025-11-16 0.004993 0.008452 0.014042 0.023772 0.040392 0.067820 0.116925
2025-11-23 0.004612 0.007995 0.013593 0.023575 0.041050 0.070607 0.124879
2025-11-30 0.004388 0.007792 0.013563 0.024104 0.043027 0.075840 0.137655
2025-12-07 0.003966 0.007207 0.012829 0.023342 0.042668 0.076992 0.143263
2025-12-14 0.003665 0.006808 0.012383 0.023045 0.043103 0.079557 0.151632
2025-12-21 0.003334 0.006327 0.011748 0.022341 0.042714 0.080567 0.157134
2025-12-28 0.003254 0.006307 0.011952 0.023221 0.045378 0.087458 0.174526
2026-01-04 0.003135 0.006199 0.011984 0.023769 0.047437 0.093349 0.190446
2026-01-11 0.003030 0.006111 0.012042 0.024370 0.049643 0.099689 0.207807
2026-01-18 0.002847 0.005852 0.011744 0.024230 0.050338 0.103069 0.219342
2026-01-25 0.002695 0.005641 0.011527 0.024234 0.051323 0.107099 0.232575
2026-02-01 0.002509 0.005347 0.011116 0.023799 0.051343 0.109126 0.241653
2026-02-08 0.002409 0.005224 0.011049 0.024084 0.052924 0.114557 0.258656